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2024-12-13 04:44:37

Polls show that the cabinet support rate of Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao dropped to 38%. According to reports, the results of a nationwide poll conducted by the agency from 6 to 8 this month showed that the cabinet support rate of Prime Minister Shi Pomao was 38%, which was 3 percentage points lower than the previous poll of the agency. The disapproval rate was 38%, which was 1 percentage point higher than the previous poll.EU leaders called on Germany to lift the borrowing ceiling to protect the economy.Baltic dry bulk freight index rose 0.09% to 1168 points.


The Gansu Provincial Department of Transportation launched a Class IV defense response to low-temperature rain, snow and freezing disasters, and the Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning of blizzard at 10: 34 on December 9: It is expected that there will be heavy snow in Lanzhou, Baiyin, Dingxi, Linxia and other cities and States, as well as northern Gannan, western Tianshui, western Pingliang, western Qingyang, southern Zhangye and southern Wuwei from 15: 00 on the 9 th to 20: 00 on the 10 th; Blizzard will appear in southern Linxia, western Dingxi, southern Lanzhou and central Baiyin. According to the relevant provisions of "Emergency Plan for Highway Traffic Security in Gansu Province" and "Comprehensive Emergency Plan for Transportation in Gansu Province", the Gansu Provincial Department of Transportation decided to start the level IV defense response to the freezing rain, snow and ice disaster of transportation at 20: 00 on December 9.The Syrian opposition authorized Mohamed Al-Bashir to form a transitional government. According to pro-Syrian opposition media reports on the 9th, the opposition authorized Mohamed Al-Bashir, the "Government of Saving the Country in Syria", to form a transitional government in Syria. The "Syrian Government for Salvation" was established by the Syrian opposition, with Bashir as its prime minister. (Xinhua News Agency)Shenwan Hongyuan Securities interprets the meeting of the Political Bureau in December: highlighting "expanding domestic demand in all directions" and "stabilizing the property market stock market". Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Report pointed out that in December, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's discussion on next year's economic work was more refined, guiding the direction of future policies, such as "expanding domestic demand in all directions". The meeting rarely emphasized "stabilizing the property market and stock market", highlighting that the current policy pays more attention to the impact of asset-side performance on the real economy. The positive signal of the policy is being released continuously, and more specific deployment focuses on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December. In terms of fiscal and monetary policies, the positive degree of macro-policy adjustment is relatively rare. The meeting proposed "implementing more positive and promising macro-policies" and "strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment". Under the "more active" fiscal policy, it may be worth looking forward to actively using the central deficit space that can be improved. Under the tone of "moderate easing", monetary policy may pay more attention to internal balance, and the RRR cut can be expected.


Huaxi Securities Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December: The policy strength showed an upward trend. The Huaxi Securities Research Report pointed out that the release signal of this meeting was positive. Judging from the significant strength of Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures, the content of the meeting greatly exceeded previous market expectations. There are mainly the following aspects: First, the policy tone is more positive. "Strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which is used to describe countercyclical adjustment for the first time, reflects the upward trend of policy strength. The policy of this year's two sessions is expressed as "strengthening countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies", the Politburo meeting in July "strengthening countercyclical adjustment" and the Politburo meeting in September "strengthening countercyclical adjustment". From the point of view of change, it gradually turns to counter-cycle instead of cross-cycle, and the intensity is constantly upgrading. Create a follow-up policy for the market that may continue to be introduced until the economy stabilizes and rebounds. At the same time, the meeting did not mention "coordinating the expansion of domestic demand and deepening the structural reform of the supply side", but directly mentioned the expansion of domestic demand, which is also a manifestation of facing the problem more directly and attaching importance to the demand side. Second, as far as finance and money are concerned, this meeting mentioned "implementing a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier "more" was added in front of the active fiscal policy. A similar expression was found in the Politburo meeting in April 2020, "The active fiscal policy should be more active and promising", and then in May, the two sessions formulated a large-scale fiscal combination boxing (deficit ratio 3.6%+, 3.75 trillion new special debts and 1 trillion special national debts). The third is to stabilize the property market and write the stock market into the 2025 goal. The fourth is to pay attention to consumption. The meeting mentioned "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding domestic demand in all directions". It is expected that the policy of promoting consumption will make a breakthrough in scale and direction. Fifth, the meeting also mentioned science and technology (to lead the development of new quality productive forces with scientific and technological innovation and build a modern industrial system), green (to jointly promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green growth, and accelerate the overall green transformation of economic and social development) and foreign trade. Emphasizing science and technology, it is clear that the direction of future policy is in the industrial direction led by science and technology. At the same time, for green, because next year is the last year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, emission reduction and other targets need to be completed. In terms of foreign trade and foreign investment, the meeting mentioned that "it is necessary to expand high-level opening to the outside world and stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment".The executive meeting of the Shanghai Municipal Government will be deployed to upgrade the energy level of Shanghai aviation logistics hub and enhance the management level of historical features protection. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng presided over the executive meeting of the municipal government today (9 th), demanding that the overall goal of the municipal government be completed with high quality in accordance with the deployment of the municipal party Committee; Take the lead in exploring new urbanization roads in megacities; Improve the energy level of Shanghai aviation logistics hub; Improve the protection and management level of Shanghai's historical features. The meeting pointed out that this year, the Shanghai Municipal Government's annual overall goal promotion work is strong and orderly, and it is necessary to stick to the goal, compact the responsibility, and pay close attention to implementation, to ensure that the relevant node goals are smoothly promoted as planned this year, and to fulfill the commitments, and at the same time, to do a good job in safety production. It is necessary to carefully plan next year's work, enhance foresight and initiative, proactively respond to various risk challenges, improve pertinence and effectiveness, come up with more practical measures, new measures and ingenious measures, and formulate the overall goal of the municipal government in 2025. It is necessary to sum up experience, maintain confidence, continue to exert efforts in key areas, stabilize stocks, make big increments, activate traffic, and effectively transform the gold content of policies into the development of high quality. The meeting agreed in principle to the "Implementation Plan of Five-year Action Plan for Shanghai to Deeply Implement the People-oriented New Urbanization Strategy" and pointed out that Shanghai's urbanization rate ranks first in the country, and it is necessary to plan and promote Shanghai's new urbanization from a higher starting point. Guided by the general rules, we should continue to improve the core functions of the city, promote the construction of the central city, new cities and new towns, and provide important support for the construction of the "five centers". People-centered, continuously optimize the supply of public services, actively respond to the needs of people's livelihood, and do everything possible to solve the problem of "urgent difficulties and worries". With the support of digital intelligence, we will continue to improve the level of refined governance, promote the innovation of urban management means, models and concepts, deepen the construction of "two networks" and accelerate the construction of smart cities and resilient cities. The meeting agreed in principle to the "Several Measures on Further Improving the Energy Level of Shanghai Aviation Logistics Hub" and pointed out that to build an all-round gateway and compound international aviation hub, it is necessary to build strong "hard facilities", speed up the construction and improvement of Pudong and Hongqiao air cargo hubs and supporting transportation collection and distribution systems, and especially accelerate the construction of infrastructure to adapt to the development of cross-border e-commerce. To optimize "soft service", airports, ports, air traffic control and other units should work closely together, increase cooperation and improve the overall efficiency of airport logistics. It is necessary to create an "ecological circle", ensure the stability, safety, autonomy and controllability of the air cargo supply chain, and attract diversified business entities to take the initiative to participate, build and share. The meeting agreed in principle with the Guidelines for the Protection of Historical Features in Shanghai and pointed out that the protection of historical features and the inheritance of cultural heritage are important contents for Shanghai to build an international cultural metropolis. To grasp the relationship between comprehensive protection and active utilization, we should not only respect history, but also integrate new elements such as humanities, science and technology and fashion to create a new landmark of the city. It is necessary to grasp the relationship between planning guidance and local conditions, not only adhere to overall planning and general planning guidance, but also use a "blueprint" to coordinate all kinds of elements in the style unit, and also show their own characteristics, give play to their endowments and form a unique urban style.Caitong Securities: It is expected that the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development will be successfully completed throughout the year. the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. According to Chen Xing, the macro chief analyst of Caitong Securities, from the current situation, the economic operation has been generally stable this year, and the key areas of risks have also been resolved in an orderly and effective manner. The meeting has confidence in this year's economic performance, and it is expected that the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development will be successfully completed throughout the year. From the perspective of future deployment, first, the positive attitude is unprecedented. The meeting mentioned that the policy will be more active and promising, and on the basis of counter-cyclical adjustment, it emphasized that the intensity should be "extraordinary" to offset "external shocks". We will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Second, pay more attention to the actual effect of policies, not only to strengthen the forward-looking, targeted and effective regulation at the macro level, but also to promote the effectiveness of landmark reform measures in specific measures. Third, pay more attention to systematicness, emphasize "system integration and coordination", improve the toolbox, lay a good policy "combination boxing" and stabilize expectations.

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